Oxford University's Statistics - Lies and Damned Lies

I've been on many demonstrations and marches with the Badger Army during over 10 years of protesting against the  cruel, ineffective and costly badger cull. Yet I was still a little surprised to find myself organising a protest outside Oxford University's Department of Statistics. 

Professor Cristl Donnelly, now Head of Statistics analysed the original Randomised Badger Culling Trial. We now know - thanks to an independent re-analysis of the data, that the methods chosen gave a false positive result. Her findings - that culling badgers can reduce the spread of bovine TB to cattle - underpin the resulting slaughter.

The Professor refuses to accept that her results are not reproducible and has doubled down, publishing two new papers defending her work and providing yet more 'Policy Based Evidence' that culling badgers works. We fear that  DEFRA will use this to persuade the new Labour government to continue the cull, and possibly allow farmers to kill "all the badgers" leading to local extinction.

I’m ashamed that ‘my university’ would act in this way, but alas, I'm no longer surprised. After a year of pleading with Oxford scientists to ‘do the right thing’ I’ve  seen first-hand how these eminent scientists appear to close ranks to protect their reputations and careers. They seem unable to even consider the possibility that they are wrong.  Over half the badger population of England – including 10,000 from  Oxfordshire - have been killed as a result. It is really important that we continue to hold them to account. I'm so grateful to everyone who was able to join us last Thursday, especially Dominic for his excellent speech, and to everyone who has signed our petition.

- Linda Ward, Trustee, for Oxfordshire Badger Group

We presented our petition on behalf of the nearly 52,000 people to Professor Donnelly along with an open letter that said:

Our petition and open letter “Oxford University's Scientists Must Speak Out Against Badger Extermination” now has over 51,000 signatures. We present it today and ask you to respond properly to criticisms of your analysis of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial and to the new scientific evidence that the badger cull is not effective in controlling bovine TB (bTB).

Your approach to one of the major animal welfare issues of the day is not scientifically principled or ethical. You are enabling DEFRA and Natural England to ignore new evidence and keep on culling regardless. Your stubborn insistence that badgers are culpable for the spread of bovine TB has already cost the lives of half the badger population of England and threatens to drive this native mammal to local extinction. This does not help farmers or cattle and is publicly condemned.

Your ’new’ research published this week in the Royal Society Open Science is confused and inconclusive. Denying that the models all point in different directions serves to confirm that the RBCT findings are not robust. It seems that you still believe – and are training a new generation of statisticians to believe:

1. that cattle don’t give TB to badgers [now proven by whole genome sequencing]
2. that OTFS herds were not infected in the RBCT when science in 2018 showed they 100% were [there was no significance when confirmed and unconfirmed reactors were considered]
3. that some kind of magical ‘onward transfer’ means a theoretical badger to cattle infection will be passed on faster than a cattle to cattle infection

None of this explains why slaughtering badgers on an industrial scale has shown no measurable disease control benefit.

Defend your science if you must; but understand that NOT to call for an end to the cull makes you directly responsible for this ongoing tragedy – one that YOU could easily help stop.

We asked Professor Donnelly to join us in calling for an immediate end to the badger cull.

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/24536518.oxford-university-called-unethical-badger-shootings/